The trade deadline is approaching fast and with the all-star break almost over and only 2 weeks and a few days for the Mariners to improve their 51-45 roster things are expected to ramp up. This deadline looks to be a little more star-studded potentially than last year and there’s a lot of good cheap options for the Mariners to capitalize on and improve the team. This blog is split up by players and trades that are the most likely to happen, followed by some skeptical deals that id say have a 25%-5% chance of happening, and some delusional dreams of trades that are likely less than 5% chance of happening.
Most Likely
Geno reunion and friends! I think it’s very imminent that the Mariners end up trading for Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez and likely along with that first baseman Josh Naylor. Mariners traded Geno 2 years ago looking to cut down on strikeouts and since then the third base position for the Mariners has been steadily rocky (to use an accurate oxymoron) with stints of Josh Rojas, Jorge Polanco, and Ben Williamson taking over to fill the role and seeing decent but quite frankly below average production from those 3. First base has been shaky as well since the Mariners DFA’ed Ty France last year and since then Luke Raley, Donavon Solano, Dylan Moore, and formerly Rowdy Tellez have spent time at the position.
Geno at 34 years old, 2026 unrestricted free agent, is a good rental option that Mariner fans know so well. He’s also having his best season since he hit 49 home runs in 2019 with the Reds. He’s got a .250 BA / .320 OBP / .569 SLG, 142 wrc+, and 2.8 fWAR. He brings power (31 home runs before the ASG) to an already powerful Mariner’s lineup and brings veteran leadership and best of all “GOOD VIBES”
Josh Naylor on the other hand, was a potential last off-season trade acquisition who is as well a 2026 unrestricted free agent could very well come to Seattle at 28 years old. He’s slashed a .294 BA / .361 OBP / .456 SLG, 126 wrc+, and 1.4 fWAR to a unsteady Mariners position allowing us to gain depth and veteran leadership.
I think a trade for these 2 is likely going to happen as the Mariners and D-Backs are constant trade partners and it could benefit both teams. 2 Rental bats but I still think the price tag would be a little hefty but with the Mariners plethora of prospects and already talented roster they could spend a little bit of the wealth and be set for a great run at the playoffs. 3
Mariners Receive: 3B Eugenio Suarez | 1B Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks Receive: #4 C Harry Ford | #9 Tyler Locklear | 3B Ben Williamson
I think it would stink to trade Harry Ford but he’s almost MLB ready and a MLB pipeline top 100 prospect that’s blocked by the best catcher in baseball and his big butt, so capitalizing on his value while it is probably at its highest pre-MLB debut it will be. Trading Tyler Locklear who is an MLB ready first baseman and Ben Williamson who is a solid third baseman with lots of control set the D-Backs up with 3 players who provide control and soon to immediate results.
We know the Mariners first base is not set and another designated hitter who can get in the outfield would be nice, and I think the Mariners are likely to look at trading for Ryan O’Hearn as he is a cheap lefty who can play 1B, corner outfield, and DH every day. O’Hearn posts a .286 BA / .382 OBP / .458 SLG, 138 wrc+, and 2.2 fWAR. He is a 2026 unrestricted free agent and with the Orioles lack of success this season I’d imagine the part ways with him for pretty cheap.
Mariners Receive: 1B,DH,RF,LF Ryan O’Hearn
Orioles Receive: #16 RHP Ashton Izzi | #23 OF Jared Sundstrom
Mariners part way with 2 decent prospects for the ability to get better for the rest of the season and add a hopefully reliable bat and on base machine. Seems like a win for the Mariners and allows the Orioles to get some farm depth
The last trade in this tier is the Mariners trading for some bullpen depth with them targeting RHP Dennis Santana from the Pirates. Santana posts a 1.56 ERA, 5 pitch mix, and pretty sexy baseball savant page. He is a middle relief pitcher that could come in handy as the Mariners have been reliant on a few good arms and could really benefit from some extra depth down the stretch. 2027 unrestricted free agent and only 29 years old, I can definitely see the Mariners making this trade and giving up only a little bit for this arm.
Mariners Receive: RHP Dennis Santana
Pirates Receive: RHP Troy Taylor | #12 RHP Michael Morales
Mariners give up a MLB ready relief arm that has potential and shown that in the 2024 season along with a highly touted young RHP prospect who the pirates would see as the most valuable asset in this trade.
Stretch deals
I can see the Mariners name being floated around these players’ names at the trade deadline but I doubt they end up trading for one of these guys if these guys are even dealt at the end of the day.
Starting with Alex Bregman, a high slugging third baseman who the Mariners had an option to sign in the 2025 offseason but opted too not. He has options after every single year of his 3-year contract and has played at a level higher than what he is currently being paid in the long term but I think this is unlikely due to the worry about his injury he is dealing with and his big contract that has lots of monetary implications. Bregman has posted a .298 BA / .380 OBP / .546 SLG, 153 wrc+, and 2.3 fWAR. He’s a gamer and a home run hitter who would be the best third baseman option for the Mariners to trade for. I wouldn’t hate trading for him personally but I think it’s unlikely.
Mariners Receive: 3B Alex Bregman
Red Sox Receive: 3B Ben Williamson | SS Leo Rivas | #6 OF Jonny Farmelo |#12 RHP Michael Morales
This is about the most I’d give up as the Mariners for a likely rental bat. The Red Sox get MLB ready third baseman Ben Williamson and some speedy UTL depth with Leo Rivas as long with 2 good prospects. It would be an easy deal for them to accept if they expect him to depart after the season is over, but with them in contention for the playoffs and AL East pennant I doubt they move him.
Another Pirates relief pitcher but this one being probably one of the best closer’s on the market in David Bednar. 3 pitch mix, 2.56 ERA, solid Baseball savant page. He’s a good pitcher to say the least and great guy to bring in for the 8th or 9th in close games when Brash and Munoz need rest. He’s a 2027 Unrestricted free agent so you’re getting 2 years of him. I don’t expect him to go for cheap when it comes to deadline relievers.
Mariners Receive: RHP David Bednar
Pirates Receive: RHP Trent Thornton | UTL Samad Taylor | #9 1B Tyler Locklear
The Mariners would probably have to deal an MLB quality reliever along with some extras to get the deal over the line and 2 bats for a dismal pirates team might be enticing enough for them to accept, especially with one being an elite AAA guy in Samad Taylor and the other a solid controllable first baseman in Tyler Locklear.
Delusional Dreams
I do not see a world where Ronald Acuna Jr or Jarren Duran gets traded to the Mariners if traded at all so I’m not going to put much effort into talking about them and will just provide you with some tidbits and the trade. I think Duran would be so fun to have on the Mariners, but I am not sure he is fit for the Mariners fanbase personality wise. He is either loved or hated and I think he would not be best in Seattle, but he is a damn good player. Acuna of course I’d love to have but he is just going to be so expensive and with 2 torn ACL’s and a semi-hefty contract I doubt Dipoto and Hollander get a green light to trade for him if they even want to.
Mariners Receive: OF Jarren Duran
Red Sox Receive: #4 C Harry Ford | #6 OF Jonny Farmelo | RF Dominic Canzone
An MLB ready outfielder with control in Dom Canzone and 2 prospects one being Harry Ford who is essentially MLB ready and Jonny Farmelo who is a highly touted prospect and young. I think the Red Sox would do this deal without a doubt if they were looking to move Duran and it helps both teams in my opinion.
Mariners Receive: RF Ronald Acuna Jr
Braves Receive: #2 OF Lazaro Montes | #4 C Harry Ford | #8 RHP Ryan Sloan| RF Dominic Canzone
This deal sees the Mariners giving up probably their best prospect and their best near MLB ready prospect along with a promising RHP pitcher who is young. This includes a replacement in Dom Canzone too for the Braves. I don’t think this trade hurts the Mariners that much and would provide the Braves with a reset. I don’t think Acuna gets traded but if it were to happen to the Mariners, I think you’re looking at an expensive package.
Do’s and Don’ts of the trade deadline for the Mariners
If I’m the Mariners I have a few untouchables of course, and especially as a buyer at the deadline. First untouchable is anyone in the Starting Pitching Rotation right now. There is not another player on the market that I think is worth trading Miller, Woo, Kirby, Castillo, Evans, or Gilbert for this deadline. These 6 give you so much flexibility and great starts at a low price and when trying to stride into the playoffs the loss of one of these 6 could play crucial for the Mariners.
On top of these 6 I’m certainly not trading prospects such as Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Jurrangelo Cijntje, or Cole Young. In my eyes the 4 best prospects we have with long-term plans in mind. These 4 are irreplaceable and trading 2 well timed prospects in Emerson who should debut with the end of JP’s contract and Montes who would also debut likely around the time an outfield position opens could be a big blunder. The overall value of Cijntje is crucial to me and I don’t necessarily think you can correctly value a switch pitcher now and would love to hold onto him. Cole Young since starting 1-19 has been a very good second baseman and shown flashes that are promising and exciting, leading us to believe the second base position that has been questionable for a long while might be fixed. KEEP THESE GUYS!
Now, on the other hand, do not trade for more starters, or any long contracts with aging players. Specifically, don’t give me Arenado. Ever since he left Coors Field he’s been declining and with a large and hefty contract I do not see any value in trading for him and having him be the long term 3B when you have other cheaper options like Geno. And for starting pitchers why would we need more depth. Once Miller comes back were looking at 7 pitchers capable of being starters in the MLB on the 40-man roster in Evans and Hancock being 6 and 7. I do not see a necessary need to trade for a starter unless something goes drastically wrong in the next 2 weeks.
Overall, I think the Mariners are going to make a trade or 2 depending on if they trade for Geno and Naylor. I think it is likely the Mariners roster going into August after July 31st looks as follows
C: Cal Raleigh
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Cole Young
3B: Eugenio Suarez
SS: JP Crawford
LF: Randy Arozarena
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Dominic Canzone
DH: Luke Raley
And bench players being Garver, Moore, Polanco, Solano, Mastrobouni, (Potentially Williamson).
Some guys who could also return would be Bliss and Robles in August and September. Getting them back in addition to Geno and Naylor plus a hopefully decent middle relief arm would set the Mariners up for a World Series run I truly believe.